The challenge that the UK’s rapidly ageing population presents local government is a national problem. Yet it is not one that will be equally shared by all councils.
    
Variation in the ‘intensity’ of the ageing population is not well understood by local authorities, according to a new report commissioned by Deloitte from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Without a more precise and comprehensive understanding of demographics at a local level, councils will be unable to deliver public services effectively in the future, the report argues.
     
The challenge for local authorities
By 2031 the number of people aged over 65 (older people) in the United Kingdom is projected to increase from 9.7m to 15.8m. This will present a significant challenge, both financial and operational, for local authorities. In 2007/08 approximately 10 per cent of English local authority spend - £8.8bn - was on personal social services for older people, just one of a wide range of services that local authorities provide to older people. Total expenditure on personal social services is expected to rise to over £20bn by 2031.
  
Ill-informed strategies will target limited resources in the wrong areas
Caroline Hope, head of the social care practice at business advisory firm Deloitte, said: “As everyone can see there will be considerable pressure on the funding of public services in the foreseeable future. So how, as a society, we respond effectively to the challenge of an ageing population is going to rise up the agenda. Without a comprehensive understanding of the problem, ill-informed strategies will target limited resources in the wrong areas.”
  
The LSE report brings together the many different dimensions of the UK’s ageing population and models the regional implications for local authority service delivery. It incorporates other demographic changes including the number of younger people and the changing profile and characteristics of older people, such as their health, ethnicity, extended family and attitudes.
  
The report finds that the impact of the ageing population will be at its most acute in areas where there are small numbers of young people and higher demands due to characteristics such as poor health or social isolation. Thirty shire counties and unitary authorities will face the most acute implications with London boroughs facing the least.
  
Dr. Joachim Wehner, of the LSE’s MPA Programme, said: “At a time when the immediate political focus is on fiscal consolidation, the findings in this report highlight the long-term budgetary pressures associated with an ageing population. The research shows that an understanding of the geographical patterns of demographic change and the locally differentiated impact on the demand for services will be crucial to an effective policy response. Short-term plans for reductions in public spending must not put at risk the service infrastructure that will be crucial for addressing this challenge in the coming decades.”
  
Solutions require a deep understanding of the problem
“Currently councils are using information about their services that is too generic and which doesn’t provide a detailed understanding of local demographics,” said Hope. “The LSE research is a good example of how better modelling and demographic profiling is needed to support planning. For councils to plan service delivery and budgetary cuts at a regional level, in this age of austerity, they are going to need far better insight into what is a highly complex problem.”
  
Deloitte suggests that local authorities take the following approach to develop an effective policy response to the UK’s ageing population:
  
•    Approach the challenge from the broadest possible viewpoint and actively engage with all agencies and organisations who are involved in serving the needs of older people.
  
•    Explore data that is currently collected to really understand what it tells you about the needs and changing nature of the ageing population.
   
•    Remove any mystery by sharing data widely and pooling information; this can also help avoid the defensive position of being bombarded with FOI (freedom of information) requests.
 
A summary report of LSE’s research findings can be found online: www.deloitte.co.uk/lseageing

Last updated 541 days ago by Civil Service World