Borrowing got us into this mess. For years, banks, companies and individuals treated their properties and future income as collateral, creating vast flows of borrowed cash that in turn pushed property prices still higher. Work became less profitable than ownership; investment less valuable than speculation. When these debts – obscured in financial instruments and used as collateral against which banks could raise still more finance – took a key role at the heart of banks’ business models, our economy was doomed to sink into the sand on which it had been built. 

In a way, we are all at fault – though on the part of the government, it was a crime of omission. Politicians failed to control the banks, but blaming government for the credit crunch is like holding the police responsible for crime. Nonetheless, when the collapse came – taking us perilously close to a grinding, ‘30s-style depression – it was down to the public sector to step in. It is deeply ironic that the only way it could keep the banks afloat and carry the country through the recession was by turning to the weapon that had so wounded it: borrowing. The government had no choice – but the result is that the bill has moved from the private to the public sector. And it is very, very large indeed.

We all know that the public sector must absorb dramatic spending cuts to reduce the spending deficit. And so far, it’s been private sector workers who have felt the full force of this painful recession; next week’s Budget will set out very clearly that it is the public sector’s turn to hurt. 

Yet as they wield the axe, ministers should remember a few underlying truths: that while many of the populace did well in the boom, many more will be hurt by cuts to public services and jobs; that cuts too savage risk pulling money out of the economy at a key moment in our unsteady recovery; that even while spending cuts reduce government’s capacity, the recession will continue to drive demand for public services. 

One of the British people’s defining characteristics is a strong sense of fairness. So if the few who created and were enriched by the boom now suffer the consequences, along with public workers and service users – if, as we are told, we really are “all in this together” – then the populace is likely merely to grumble and take its medicine. But if people feel that they are taking the fall for errors not of their making, while the bankers and investors whose actions fostered the crisis are again enjoying mammoth bonuses, the reaction will be an angry one. People will put up with a huge amount of pain if they can see that everybody is suffering; but they’ll balk at a pinprick if they feel it unjust.